While barely 10% of Italian births were to unmarried mothers in 1999, by 2019 this figure reached 34%. A similar change had occurred decades before in other European countries, but in Italy, a country known for its religiosity and strong attachment to familial values, this substantial and rapid increase was uncertain and even surprising. A higher non-marital fertility ratio (NFR) may result from increased non-marital fertility, decreased fertility among married women, or a change in the fraction of women married and unmarried. Analyzing Census data from 2001 to 2019, I show that between 2001 and 2011, the rise in NFR mainly reflected the increased non-marital fertility, while between 2011 and 2019, the rise reflected both the growth in the fraction of women who were unmarried and a decline in marital fertility. Shifts in population composition of reproductive age women over time, such as the higher proportion of older women or the higher fraction of foreign women, did not explain these changing patterns. Patterns of non-marital childbearing differed across regions of Italy, with earlier and faster adoption of non-marital childbearing in Northern and Central Italy. These demographic patterns are consistent with a generational shift in attitudes towards a greater acceptance of non-marital births.
