Description
- Abstract:
- Volcanic eruptions inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, altering Earth’s radiative balance and triggering surface cooling that can persist for several years. These events provide natural experiments for testing sea ice sensitivity to short-term climate forcing, independent of ongoing anthropogenic trends. Many observational and modelling studies have attempted to quantify impacts due to volcanic forcing, with most focusing on atmospheric and oceanic changes. Some aspects of sea ice response have been recorded, but a comprehensive multi-model assessment specifically dedicated to the Arctic sea ice response to a single major eruption using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) ensemble, has yet been systematically evaluated. This study presents an ongoing multi-model assessment of Arctic sea ice response to the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption using the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) experiment design. The volc-pinatubo experiments are compared to the ensemble mean change in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness against ERA5 reanalysis to assess magnitude and recovery timescale of the volcanic signal. Historical simulations are also analysed to assess whether the observed response is within the range of internal variability represented in the CMIP6 models. By establishing volcanic forcing experiments as a test of model skill, this project aims to quantify inter-model consistency, identify sources of bias, and evaluate how well models capture sea ice responses to natural forcings. Based on previous literature, an increase in Arctic sea ice extent is expected to peak around 18 months post eruption and remain increased for a decade, with the sea ice response linked to model treatment of ocean uptake and aerosol distribution and production.
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- Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-ND 4.0)
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- In Copyright
Citation
Mogridge, Eleanor, and Rocha, Maria Luísa,
"Evaluating Climate Model Skill in Simulating Arctic Sea Ice Response to Volcanic Forcing"
(2025).
Summer Research Symposium.
Brown Digital Repository. Brown University Library.
https://doi.org/10.26300/f9dd-dg42
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Summer Research Symposium
Each year, Brown University showcases the research of its undergraduates at the Summer Research Symposium. More than half of the student-researchers are UTRA recipients, while others receive funding from a variety of Brown-administered and national programs and fellowships and go …...